The big number at the top of your VelaDeck dashboard ("$1,000 in your mix → $X today") is a simulation. Here's what it does and doesn't say.
How it's computed
Each strategy publishes a monthly cumulative return series that goes back to its launch (mostly 2013 for our Pro-tier strategies). VelaDeck takes those series, weights them by the USD you've assigned to each strategy, and produces a single blended cumulative return series.
Then we multiply the starting $1,000 by (1 + blended_return_at_t) at every timestamp. That's the equity curve you see.
What it captures
- The *relative* mix of your assigned strategies, weighted by USD.
- The interaction over time — if you overweight US20 (value) and
- underweight IT15 (tech), the blend leans that way.
- The comparison against the benchmark (weighted blend of each
- strategy's own reference index) shown as the gray line.
What it doesn't capture
- **Rebalancing cost** — the strategies rebalance monthly or
- quarterly, but the historical series is post-fee return of the
- underlying model. Alpaca is commission-free so this is close to
- reality, but not exact.
- **Cash drag between signals** — the simulation assumes fully
- invested continuously. In practice there's a lag between one signal
- firing and the next.
- **Your actual entry timing** — starting today is different from
- starting in 2013. Past performance is not a promise of future
- returns.
How to read the number
If your blend simulated at +820% over 12 years, that's a real number from the historical returns. It's not a prediction. Use it to understand what mix you've built, not to expect a specific result.
The benchmark line is what a passive equivalent would have done. If your blend is above it consistently, the mix has outperformed historically. If it hugs the line, you're basically just buying beta.